Grading the Redskins draft

The 2015 Draft is in the books, and early responses for Redskins' new GM Scot McLoughan are largely positive. My take is less so. While not an utter failure, I think a number of the team's picks managed to fall short on both need AND value, which is never promising. To take into account the way trades and multiple picks work, I will grade both by round, accounting for everything that happened in that round, and by pick, with a total grade at the end.

Round 1

Pick 5: Brandon Scherff, OL (6'5, 319 lbs.)
Pick grade: C+

I like Scherff a lot. He's a good blocker, and I have been pounding the table to get Polombus (and, for that matter, Chester) replaced for years, so it's hard for me to be too disappointed at a pick aimed at accomplishing just that. That said, I have to assume there were no good offers for trading down, because the value isn't great. Though he'll start at RT, a lot of people think he profiles better as a guard because of unimpressive arm length and first step, and a spotty track record against real speed edge rushers in college. Of course, guard or tackle, he gives the Redskins OL and offense a big boost, but it's a little hard to swallow any lineman but a LT that high, and this pick's grade particularly suffers because DL Leonard Williams was still on the board, and I think drafting him would have been a coup. Definitely fills a need, like the player, but you really need to get great value from either a positional value (read: drafting a QB) or a BPA standpoint when picking that high, and I'm not sure the Redskins did.

Round 1 Grade: C+

Round 2

Pick 38: Preston Smith, OLB/DE (6'5, 271)
Pick Grade: C

On its face, this seems like a really good pick. Preston Smith is a big, versatile player with NFL starter upside, and OLB is a need in the wake of Orakpo's departure for Tennessee. Looking more closely, however, what the Skins really need is a pure pass rusher. Kerrigan is well-rounded and last year's second-rounder Trent Murphy excels more at setting the edge against the run than getting to the QB. Smith's strength? Using his size to stop the run, rushing from the interior. Weakness? Middling first step, only okay as an edge rusher. The position may have been a need, but the role really isn't, particularly when Nate Orchard (51st overall to Houston), Randy Gregory (60th to Dallas), Owa Odighizuwa (74th to NYG), Eli Harold (79th to San Fransisco) were all still on the board as more accomplished or promising pass rushers. My guess is that Smith's selection might hint at a significant more from the 3-4 to a more hybrid 3-4/4-3 front because he makes sense as someone who can move between OLB and DE. Still, with the aforementioned pass rushers, ILB Eric Kendricks, CBs like Jalen Collins, Eric Rowe, and Ronald Darby, and NTs Jordan Phillips and Eddie Goldman available, I once again have a hard time giving great marks in value or need.

Round 2 Grade: C

Undrafted Free Agents

1 pm, 5/3
Update: 3:15 pm, 5/3

The draft is in the books, for better or worse, and a number of players who went undrafted could still compete in the NFL. Teams are working fervently to put to ink the guys they consider to be priority UDFAs, so here's a mid-day update on people I knew about that I thought could or should be drafted, or players I have since read about that sound like they could be good prospects for the Redskins to go after.

Players Redskins have supposedly signed that intrigue me:
DE Corey Crawford, OL Tacoby Cofield, LB Terrance Plummer

Seemingly(?) unsigned UDFA's that I am interested in:
CB Justin Coleman, CB Jacoby Glenn, QB Blake Sims, LB James Vaughers, LB literally actually Norkeithus Otis, DT Terry Williams, WR Cam Worthy, OL Eric Lefeld, OL Adam Shead, SS Anthony Harris (MIN), CB Justin Cox (KC), LB Taiwan Jones (NYJ), LB Zach Vigil (MIA), OL Josue Matias (TEN), OL Quenton Spain (TEN), HB Trey Williams (HOU), DT Joe Mbu (ATL)

Looks like the Texans, Bucs, and Titans have gotten a lot of promising UDFAs I would have liked.

Of course, reported signings often get backed out of or end up being inaccurate, but based on the available information, other interesting UDFAs (particularly, safeties Cody Prewitt and Kurtis Drummond) are already with other teams.

*To note, OT La'el Collins is also a UDFA who interests me, and indeed would easily top the list, but he won't be signing with anyone until his legal situation is cleared up, at which point he could suddenly be a hot item again and be offered a significant contract. Still, once(/if) his name is clear, I would love for the Redskins to go hard after him. 

2015 Free Agency- Ideal Moves

The Redskins have a good amount of salary cap room (around 20 million now plus the money earmarked for the draft, but could easily free up another 15+ through simple, obvious extensions and restructures), but I don't recommend too much in the way of huge flashy moves.

All in all, we'll want to free up around 10 million or so in additional space to make the following moves a possibility. We can free up a minimum of 6-7 mil by extending Trent Williams (current cap hit almost 14 mil), who needs an extension anyway. Another 2 mil could probably be gained by extending Ryan Kerrigan (current 7 mil) who is also in the final year of his deal and should be locked up. Two easy cuts, particularly with the moves below, would be Tracy Porter (>2 mil), and Chris Chester (4 mil), giving us close to 15 million in additional cap space, which should be plenty. Still, more room could be freed up if needed-- DeAngelo Hall's now-completely non-guaranteed 4 million, and at least 2-3 million by restructuring Pierre Garcon, for instance. Making just some of these moves can result in well over 30 million in free cap space without any more significant losses to the roster. So let's delve into guys we want to bring in and how much they will cost us.

We will start with defense. The one guy I'd really be okay with overpaying a bit to nab would be Devin McCourty. We are really, truly desperate at safety and have been for a long time now. He's the only really good option in free agency (Rahim Moore would be a backup option and Nate Allen is okay, but nothing more) and it's not a good draft for safeties, so I think having him lock down one safety spot to let a bunch of less-impressive options (Duke Ihenacho, Phillip Thomas, maybe a rookie) compete to play next to him would help a lot.
Cost: Say, 9.5/year maybe

After that, if we could get Terrence Knighton, Vince Wilfork, or Haloti Ngata if the Ravens release him, that would be great. Good DL help to solidify NT without Cofield, but not Suh-level (or cost). Knighton is the best and youngest option, but will have significant interest on the market, especially from the Raiders with former coach Jack Del Rio and tons of cap room.
Cost: Perhaps 2 years, 11 mil for Wilfork; 3/22 for Ngata; 4/32 for Knighton, I'd guess.

There aren't any really good corners, but there are a lot of mediocre ones. Brandon Flowers, Kareem Jackson, Shareece Wright, Buster Skrine... Bring one of those guys in to compete at corner, fill the group out a little.
Cost: 3 years, 11 mil depending on whom

Keenan Robinson had a strong year one as a starter, but Perry Riley has been disappointing. If we could sign Brandon Spikes, Sean Weatherspoon, someone like that to work the middle with Robinson, it would be a good move
3 years, 13 mil

Redskins Salary Cap Situation Going into 2015 and Beyond

Doing some math and such...

The Redskins need to cut, based on both plays and recoverable money, Chris Chester and Tracy Porter, cut or restructure Stephen Bowen with a much cheaper deal, and extend Trent Williams and Ryan Kerrigan who both have a lot of unguaranteed money on the books in the coming final year of their contracts. Doing just those could leave us with a projected 40-45 mil in cap space with under 100 on the books (projected 2015 cap a little over 140 mil)

We should be able to re-sign Kai Forbath, Niles Paul, Tom Compton, Santana Moss, Roy Helu, Chris Thompson, and Jarvis Jenkins...

Cut Chester, Porter, and some scrubs...

Extend/Renegotiate Bowen, Kerrigan, Hall, Darrell Young...

Sign all of our draft picks...

Let Chris Clark, Brandon Merriweather, Tyler Polombus, EJ Biggers, Colt McCoy, Leonard Hankerson, Duke Ihenacho, and a couple more scrubs walk...

and be left with 30 mil in cap space and 53+ people under contract.

The only currently rostered/relevant person not taken into account in that scenario is Brian Orakpo. He's kind of a special case as the only potential free agent who would command real money, and I'm not sure what we should do with him. I like him and loathe such a needy teem letting talent like that walk, but someone would give him more money than it makes reasonable or safe sense to guarantee him, or he'll sign a one-year prove it deal which he might do with a contender instead of us. Tagging him a second time would cost 14-15 mil I think, so even with all our space that's probably not an option. So I guess we'll have to see how things are looking in terms of cap space and other signings and what he's being offered and then decide.

At present, Jason Hatcher, Shawn Lauvao, Andre Roberts, Kory Lichtensteiger, and our 2014 rookies are the only players still on the books past 2016, and they total less than 6mil of unrecoverable guarantees between them in the final years of their deals.

So, we should be able to keep whomever we want AND be active in free agency, and we still should be in a good cap space going forward in future years. This leaves us, obviously, with a similar roster to last year without Clark/Merriweather, Chester/Polombus, and maybe Hall and Bowen; so we could use some OL help and definitely need help in the secondary.

Particularly, Phillip Thomas would really be the only remotely promising safety on roster. In addition to him, we would only have Amerson, Breeland, and possibly Hall and Minnifield at corner, and Thomas and Akeem Davis at safety on the roster.

Sadly, this is a poor year both in free agency and the draft for safeties. I don't really see any way we have good-looking safeties next season, unfortunately. 

Griffin vs. Cousins: Downfield throws, Touchdowns, and Interceptions

Was just doing some research comparing the two. Here are the results:

Griffin: 30 starts, 30 games played

17 Interceptions to 36 TD throws (as well as 7 rushing)

Cousins: 8 starts, 13 games played

18 interceptions to 18 thrown (none rushing)

I was approached with the theory that it's an unfair comparison because Cousins pushes the ball down field and goes deep vastly more often than Griffin, so I decided to look at that, for the sake of replacing pervasive impressions with accurate information. Here are the actual numbers. To note, this is obviously skewed in Cousins' favor because a great deal of his throws have been with the more-vertically-aggressive Gruden compared to Griffin's throws with Shanahan, as well as because Cousins has had better weapons than Griffin (particularly one of the league's best deep threats in Jackson). Regardless, here are the raw numbers as they stood before today's game vs. Arizona.

Cousins, excluding today's game, has gone more than 10 yards downfield on 123 throws, out of a total of 363 attempts (33.9%). 38 out of his 363 were throws of 20+ yards (10.5%).

Griffin has gone more than 10 yards downfield on 280 throws, out of a total of 907 attempts (30.9%). 80 of Griffin's 907 attempts were 20+ yards (8.9%).

To make those splits more explicit, that means that Cousins throws between 10 and 20 yards 23.4% of the time, compared to Griffin's 22.1% The difference, then, in Cousins' favor is 1.3% on 10-19 yard throws, and 1.6% on 20+.

Week Three at Philadelphia

After the first half of this one, I got a bit too invested in the game to keep up the tablet notation out at a bar, but here is some of my thought process throughout watching the first half and some general takeaways about the team after the brutally close loss to Philadelphia.

-The team looks more fired up than I've seen in a long time. Unsurprisingly, DeSean Jackson looks particularly amped.

-We're finally going to Garcon early, it will be interesting to see if it keeps up, and how much it has to do with Jackson playing injured.

-The DB was rightly penalized there, despite what the announcers are crying for, but Jackson should have been as well. It's odd that the initial action is caught, but the retaliation isn't, but both were guilty.

-Aaaaand, there's the make-up call. No one did anything wrong on that play, it was a clear apology to Philadelphia for the previous play.

-Morris isn't getting a lot of room to run. Paulsen failed to seal the edge on this particular run, making him fight in the backfield.

-They lined up with Jackson in the backfield, faked a deep pitch to him before turning and tossing a bubble screen to Garcon. I like the creativity, but that was a terribly conceived play. There's no way the team was going to throw it 8 yards into the backfield to get it to Jackson, so the fooled no one regardless of execution and was a waste of time. 

-Back in the red zone, once again going to Young. I don't know when opposing defenses will start realizing how much the team loves going to the fullback in the red zone.

-This isn't the first time I've had this revelation, but Niles Paul would be a really good receiving option if he could reliably catch the ball. 

Takeaways from Week 2's Dismantling of the Jaguars, and a Look at the QB Situation Going Forward

This will be just a bullet-point list of some of the notes I took of my impressions during week two's win over Jacksonville and week three's blank blank the Eagles. I may add to it or reformat it as I re-watch games, but will put this up for now.

-Love the keeper first play of the game. Force defenses to respect that possibility, which Houston's did not in week one. Worked for a first down, and, perhaps most importantly, Giffin slid competently at the end of his run. 

-Tyler Polombus vacated his man to try to help Chester, letting his block go for an easy sack. Terrible play.

-On defense, our pass rush continues to look fearsome while our complete lack of a secondary to provide coverage allows completions. Allen Hurns did us a big favor by dropping a sure-fire touchdown pass.

-A return that goes nowhere yet still manages to have two penalties on it. That's a staggering level of incompetence from our special teams.

-On the play Griffin got injured, he actually did a phenomenal job of using his athleticism to extend the play while keeping his eyes downfield, and found an open receiver for a first down. Unfortunately, it ended with the awkward step and dislocated ankle.

-I like the gameplan of mixing it up and taking shots while still running the ball, but things aren’t going our way here. Outside of unfortunate injuries the only area we actually see to be struggling is on the OL, particularly the right side. Chester is a weak link and Polombus is even weaker.

-Defensive backs aren't on the same page. Amerson nearly had an interception, but Biggers got in the way going for the ball himself.

-Run the ball to the left instead of the right, and we see Trent Williams actually seal his block leaving a seam off his hip for Morris to pick up 15 yards. That's the difference between the left and right side of the OL, even in the run game, where Polombus is relatively solid. 

Practice squad hopes

The roster is in place, so it's time to move on down. This is subject to change given players released by other teams who are/aren't placed on their respective practice squads, but based on what we cut and what is available now, the following would be my picks for the initial now-10-man practice squad, provided they do not get claimed by another team:

HB Lache Seastrunk, HB Chris Thompson, S Phillip Thomas (who is eligible due to the new rules pertaining to first- and second-year players), C/G Tevita Stevens, DT Robert Thomas, WR Nick Williams, WR Rashad Ross, WR Cody Hoffman, LB Jeremy Kimbrough, and TE Ted Bolser

Each is a young player who has shown to have some ability or skill, and at least a few of them I think could be contributors on the active roster in the future.

If you need a refresher on the practice squad and what determines player eligibility, check this link.

How I would have constructed the roster differently

The Redskins' initial 53-man roster has been decided. The offense is very close to what I predicted and what I would have done outside of HB, but defense has a few changes. For some reason, we kept six inside linebackers with another one on IR/designated to return (which was a very poor usage of that), as well as six defensive ends, with a seventh on PUP.

Cut: QB Colt McCoy, HB Silas Redd, DE Frank Kearse, ILB Adam Hayward, S Trenton Robinson

Keep: HB Lache Seastrunk, HB Chris Thompson, OLB Rob Jackson (or Everette Brown, for his special teams play), CB Richard Crawford, S Phillip Thomas

Roster predictions/evaluation- Defense and Special Teams

With the Redskins' final 2014 preseason snap played, we're less than 2 days out from the cut down to 53. Let's take a look at the prospects, what I think will happen, and what I think should happen.

bold: lock
italics: predicted roster spot
normal: off the roster  

Defense

 

Nose Tackle (1)
1. Barry Cofield
2. Chris Neild (Injured)

3. Robert Thomas
This is tricky, because I think Cofield and Neild were the pretty clear picks, but Neild hurt his knee against the Bucs last night, and there's speculation it might be a torn ACL. If that's the case, obviously he will be on injured reserve. Even then, I think the team opts for an extra defense end that can play the nose rather than keeping Thomas, leaving Cofield as the only true nose tackle (if you can call him that). 

Defensive End (5)
1. Jason Hatcher
2. Stephen Bowen (PUP?)
3. Chris Baker
4. Jarvis Jenkins
5. Kedric Golston
6. Clifton Geathers
7. Frank Kearse 
Six defensive ends is a lot, but seven total defensive linemen is reasonable. I predict Stephen Bowen starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, also, which means only 5 for the time being. Clifton Geathers has put together a very strong preseason and has the size to help out at nose tackle, so I think he makes the team, and I expect Golston to as well. 

Inside Linebacker (5)
1. Perry Riley
2. Keenan Robinson
3. Adam Hayward
4. Will Compton
5. Darryl Sharpton
6. Akeem Jordan (Injured. PUP?)

Griffin's biggest issues

Quick post highlighting what seem to me to be RG3's biggest problems right now based on last season and what has continued into this pre-season with the brace off and in a new offense:

1) Sometimes blatantly stares down a receiver. He needs to either scan like on any other pass play or get the ball out quickly, but sometimes-- I think when he knows where he's going to try and go with the ball-- he turns right to a guy but hesitates before throwing. I think the second of looking at the receiver might indicate that he doesn't trust the guy so he's trying to watch and make sure he's there and whatever, but it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy because that extra time spent telegraphing gives corners an easy opportunity to position themselves to sit on the route. These are generally his most egregious plays. If it's predetermined where he is going to go with the ball he needs to go there, not wait and then throw. If it's not, then he needs to go through his progressions until a guy is open. Those plays are the worst of both worlds.

2) Sliding. I don't know why it's so hard for him, but he's the worst slider ever. Every time he goes to the ground he looks liable to hurt himself, and half the time he gets hit anyway.

3) Sometimes-lazy footwork. His accuracy declines considerably when he doesn't stick with his mechanics. Not sure if compensating for his knee last year might have gotten him into some bad habits, because this wasn't such an issue his rookie season, but they need to be broken. He can place the ball very well almost anywhere on the field when he is meticulous about his form.

4) Knowing when to throw it away. I think a lot of his awful plays/interceptions are times when he knows it's not a high-percentage throw but is under pressure or its 3rd down or something and he tries to force it instead of living to fight another day. Griffin almost never just throws the ball away (or, decides to try and do it too late and gets hit and the ball goes bobbling off his hand). Contrast someone like Peyton Manning, where like 20% of his throws are out of bounds. He seems to be giving up on plays a little more often nowadays, but he usually runs it out of bounds when he does instead of throwing it away. Sometimes it's because he boots out to extend and see if he can find a seem up the sideline, but he should decide he doesn't sooner and chuck it instead of getting hit heading out or taking a 3 yard loss by sacking himself out of bounds.

5) Sometimes makes bad/inconsistent choices on when to pull it down and run and when not to. That's the kind of thing that will just come with time, though, as he works to transition his game.

Most of these were either non-present or very minimal issues in his stellar rookie year. I think some of them are a component of the way he's in his head trying to alter his game. The foot mechanics one is most worrisome, in my opinion. Now that he's completely healthy, Gruden needs to whip his ass back into shape, mechanics-wise.

Advocating the ZBS to Jay Gruden

Update 2/6: Gruden and McVay have indicated that the offense will not change much, so this is looking good/promising. Still not specifics on blocking scheme, though.

Since Jay Gruden was announced as the Redskins’ new head coach, there has been a lot of talk about how that will impact RG3, but not enough about how it will affect the team’s blocking. What has been written is inconsistent, largely incorrect or baseless.

The truth is that he ran a fairly normal blocking scheme in Cincinnati with both power and zone fronts on different plays, just like his brother did in Tampa.  It’s noteworthy that when Gruden called zones, he favored inside zone runs as opposed to the long stretch runs that Shanahan has always used to great effect. His plays tend to involve more linemen pulling to lead block than Shanahan’s did, like in another of his bread-and-butter plays: the 96(right) or 97(left) power, an off-tackle run with the backside guard pulling.

However, the important thing to focus on is not what he ran in Cincinnati, but what he will run in Washington. Gruden is a smart coach who knows how to get the most out of his offense, so he should be willing to adapt to his situation. Right now his situation should lead him to embrace zone blocking. He doesn’t need to run it almost-exclusively like Mike and Kyle Shanahan did, but it should absolutely remain the primary blocking scheme the Redskins use.

First, the running game was never the problem during the Shanahan era, so why fix what ain’t broke? The Redskins are the only team in the NFL to finish in the top 5 in both rushing yards and yards per carry each of the last two seasons. More to the point, the team is designed to facilitate the ZBS. Nowhere else in the league will you find a 284 lb. starting guard (Kory Lichtensteiger). Trent Williams is the only lineman on the Redskins who I am confident could transition to and excel in other offenses. No other starter was drafted earlier than the 5th round, and two began their careers playing for Shanahan in Denver. Montgomery, the second best lineman, couldn’t stick on a roster until the Redskins signed him. Lichtensteiger, the third best, was drafted by Shanahan to the Broncos. After Shanahan got fired, he was cut and spent a season out of football until Shanahan signed him again in Washington. Point being, these aren’t cream-of-the-crop linemen, they are linemen who have a specific skill set and fit a specific scheme.

Sure, they could put on some weight, but they still wouldn’t be maulers and having them attempt too much power blocking would be downplaying their greatest strength: the speed and footwork to reach block, cut block and get to the second level. The entire line (outside Williams) is undersized and quick, allowing them to get their hands on linebackers and defensive backs, not blow defensive tackles off the ball with strength.

It extends past the line, though: Alfred Morris is an ideal zone running halfback. He isn’t the most talented player, but he has great patience and vision, and can make a cut and explode into a hole when it develops. These are the most important qualities for a runner in a zone scheme. Even Roy Helu and Evan Royster were drafted for their ability to identify and slip into creases in a blocking scheme.

Lastly, it must be taken into account that standout offensive line coach Chris Foerster is still with the team and former tight ends coach/3rd down package planner Sean McVay has been promoted to Offensive Coordinator, so the people working with the offense are comfortable with zone runs. The Redskins don’t have such a plethora of talent or draft picks to add new talent that they can afford to ignore the best way to use their players, and both in front and back, the offensive roster is very clearly designed to run zone schemes. Gruden should embrace that.

Available free agents

It is difficult to tell which free agents are going to reach the open market, so I won't go into great detail on them, but I'll keep a list here of options I find attractive for the Redskins, with their ages at the start of next season, current team, and position

First, the Redskins free agents (in general order of how important it is to retain them)
Brian Orakpo, 28, OLB
Perry Riley, 27, ILB
London Fletcher, 39, ILB*
DeAngelo Hall, 30, CB (potential move to FS)
Reed Doughty, 31, S
Santana Moss, 35, WR
Josh Wilson, 29, CB
Rob Jackson, 28, OLB
Chris Baker, 26, DL
Fred Davis, 28, TE
Josh Morgan, 29, WR
J.D. Walton, 26, C
Darryl Tapp, 29, OLB
EJ Biggers, 28, CB/S
Nick Barnett, 33, ILB
Bryan Kehl, 30, ILB
Dez Briscoe, 27, WR
Rex Grossman, 34, QB

*retiring


And now for other teams' free agents.

Safety
TJ Ward, Clevland, 27, Unrestricted Free Agent
Jairus Byrd, Buffalo, 27, UFA
Taylor Mays, Cincinnati, 26, UFA

Cornerback
Chris Harris, 25, Denver, Restricted Free Agent
Sam Shields, 26, Green Bay, UFA
Aqib Talib, 28, New England, UFA
Vontae Davis, 26, Indianapolis, UFA
Alterraun Verner, 25, Tennessee, UFA
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, 28, Denver, UFA
Captain Munnerlyn, 26, Carolina, UFA

Linebacker
Brandon Spikes, 26, New England, UFA
Wesley Woodyard, 28, Denver, UFA
Keith Rivers, 28, New York Giants, UFA

Edge Rusher
Provided that Orakpo is re-signed, not a notable need. A good amount of proven rushers are free agents, though.

Defensive Line
Tyson Jackson, 28, Kansas City, UFA
Arthur Jones, 28, Baltimore, UFA
Linva Joseph, 25, New York Giants, UFA
Pat Sims, 28, Oakland, UFA
BJ Raji, 28, Green Bay, UFA
Paul Soliai, 30, Miami, UFA

Offense after the break

Roster Review (Offense)

There's a storm of stories and parasites gorging themselves on supposed bad blood in Washington, right now. Not only do I believe it's massively overblown, but I also think it's the wrong thing to focus on. That will work itself out eventually -- hopefully in the off-season -- and I would rather discuss football matters. So, given that this season is clearly over for all but evaluation, I'm going to look at the roster, position-by-position, and discuss where the Redskins need to go. They are still, of course, missing their first round draft pick from the RG3 trade, but they have the rest of the draft, picking early in rounds, and will have 18 million dollars of (unfairly-taken) cap space returned to them this off-season, so there's plenty of room to make moves to improve the team.

I'll post installments or updates adding new positions periodically.

1/8/2014 update: I'm finishing this up and adding players who were signed after the Redskins' season ended. Depending one when entries were written, references to scheme are obviously subject to change.

1/9/2014 update: With Jay Gruden named head coach, we will need to see what he plans in terms of scheme changes, but early reports are that he is likely to promote tight ends coach Sean McVay to offensive coordinator, which I would guess could mean Chris Foerster stays in charge of the line and the blocking schemes don't change too heavily. I think that would be a good move as they are effective and the team's personnel is very much built to run them. Still, we won't know for sure for a little while how much things will change. 

1/20/2014 update: Fully updated for every player on the team or who has been with the team this season. 

Quarterback

1. Robert Griffin III (23 years old/6'2" tall/220 lbs.) College at Baylor, drafted 2nd overall in 2012 [2 years, $12.5 million remaining on his contract after this season]: He's the starter, he will be the starter, and any "reporters" bleating to the contrary are just regurgitating each other's inaccurate information or trying to get attention. He's a transcendent talent and one of the best players on the team in his second year, and, honestly, has played pretty well this year. Not great, but well enough that everyone would be perfectly happy with this notch in a sophomore quarterback's development coming out of a Big 12 spread offense if it weren't following up the greatest season a rookie QB has ever had, an ORotY award, a pro bowl berth, and the attention that comes with being DC's franchise QB and savior.

Griffin has things to work on: he's one of the worst pre-snap quarterbacks in the league, his mechanics sometimes falter as he tries to let his outstanding arm strength do the job that should be done by his footwork, and his mechanics on the run this season have been much worse than last season (whether that's a result of the injury, the knee brace, or just bad habits coming out as he's often running for his life, I don't know). Griffin is inconsistent on when he tries to trust his receivers' timing coming out of breaks and throw to where they should be be and when he tries to look around and find an open player, and is sometimes punished for both by drops, bad routes, or sacks. He's not unable to read a defense, but isn't as fast or sure of it as a great pocket quarterback, and has trouble picking up on pre-snap clues to what the D will do on the play à la Peyton Manning. He also, of course, needs to learn when to give up on a play and lay down for a sack or toss the ball away instead of trying to force things. These problems are all fixable, however, and not uncommon for a young player, and being as good as he is this early is still impressive. He's smart, incredibly hard-working, and unbelievably talented: there's no reason to think he won't improve. He is in his second year, coming off a major injury, and had no off-season to develop chemistry and work on timing. This entry should be longer than anyone else on the team's will be, for obvious reasons.

2. Kirk Cousins (25/6'3/209 lbs.) Michigan State, 3rd:24 in 2012 [2 years, $1.5m]: Cousins is hard-working, smart, and has college experience that is more applicable to the NFL level than Griffin. But he has his own problems and certainly isn't the talent that Griffin is. He is more of a Matt Flynn/Matt Cassel type. If he gets really lucky, his upside may be Matt Schaub. Any Matt, really. Adequate-but-unimpressive arm strength and athleticism, he is a good backup and I could see him being a solid game manager, but I would be surprised if he's ever a franchise QB for anyone (would be happy to be wrong here though, I like the guy). He will probably be back as the Redskins second string QB next year, but it will depend on how much interest teams have in the off-season. There are a lot of interesting prospects in this draft at the position, but if a team decides they want someone a little more veteran, the Redskins will certainly listen to offers. Cousins started the final three games of the season, and while he wasn't bad per se, he likely didn't do any favors for his stock. The entire team was floundering and he simply showed he wasn't ready to come in and put the team on his back, which no one should have expected. Santana Moss even expressed his belief that Cousins was essentially being set up to fail. Overall, taking context into account, his performances were mediocre, but ended on a particularly poor zero-touchdown, two-interception flop in bad weather against the Giants.

3. Rex Grossman (33/6'1/225 lbs.) Florida, 2003 [Free agent]: Doesn't really matter. If Shanahan is still here, Grossman probably will be too. If he's fired, Grossman will be gone. He's here because the Shanahans like him and he's familiar with their scheme.

Chase Minnifield cleared waivers!

Minnifield surprised me by clearing waivers, being added to the practice squad along with Florida rookie OT Xavier Nixon, UConn WR Nick Williams, Scarlet Knight RB Jawan Jamison, LB Will Compton, OL Tevita Stevens, DL Dominique Hamilton, and WR Lance Lewis.

I'm surprised to see Lewis rather than Skye Dawson join Williams, and am surprised that all eight practice squad members were cut from the Redskins' roster, but for the most part that's about as expected.

Primarily, I'm just jazzed that Minnifield made it. I think he has a future in the league, and I hope it's in Washington.

Roster

Having gone through the cuts that have happened, what they likely mean for the club, and ones that are likely still coming, I'll now take a look at how things will likely shake out when all is said and done.

Practice squad predictions would include CB Chase Minnifield (if he doesn't get grabbed off waivers by someone else), HB Jawan Jamison, C Kevin Matthews, WRs Nick Williams and Skye Dawson, and perhaps Lance Lewis, OT Xavier Nixon, either of S Jose Gumbs or Jordan Pugh if one doesn't make the active roster. With eight spots, that could fill the practice squad, but I anticipate at least one or two spots (which probably would be at Lewis' expense with both Williams and Dawson also vying for spots) going to guys the team picks up from other teams' cuts.

Injured Reserve:
S Philip Thomas,, LB Keenan Robinson, CB Richard Crawford (technically waived/injured since he didn't have a deal past this year, but he'll be someone who tries to make the Redskins next season), and perhaps DE Doug Worthington. He isn't listed on the team site, so I'm actually not sure what his deal is right now

Still suspended forever:
Tanard Jackson

Projected 53-man roster:
(25) (26)
QB(2): Griffin, Cousins
QB3(1)(2): Grossman and White
HB(4): Morris, Helu, Royster, Thompson
FB(1): Young
TE(4): Davis, Reed, Paulsen, Paul
OT(3): Williams, Polombus, Compton
OG(4): Lichtensteiger, Chester, Gettis, LeRibeus
C(1): Montgomery
WR(5): Garcon, Moss, Hankerson, Morgan, Robinson
Sixth WR?: Dezmon Briscoe (update: IR)
(24)
NT(2): Cofield, Neild
DE(4): Bowen, Golston, Baker, Merling, (Jarvis Jenkins on suspension)
OLB(4): Orakpo, Kerrigan, Tapp, Jenkins, (Rob Jackson on suspension)
ILB(4): Fletcher, Riley, Barnett, Kehl,
Additional ILB?: Burdett
CB(5): Wilson, Hall, Ameron, Biggers, Murphy
FS (3): Rambo, Pugh, Gumbs
SS(2): Merriweather, Doughty

(3)
K(1): Forbath
P(1): Rocca
LS(1): Sundberg

(53 total)

It isn't yet known which QB will win the third QB job, though I've already discussed that, and the 53rd spot on the roster is a bit unclear. If Briscoe is indeed placed on IR as anticipated, it is starting to look like linebacker Marvin Burdett might be surprising everyone to make the team, which would be on his special teams contributions. I have a hard time buying Burdett bringing more value than Minnifield, Pashos, or a 6th receiver, but it seems the coaching staff thinks he will unless they are planning on keeping Briscoe or bring in someone another team cut to take the final roster spot. If I had to make a guess which will happen it would be keeping Burdett, as it seems unlikely that they value Briscoe enough to keep him on the roster when he won't be able to contribute for a month or more.

If they were to bring in a player cut by another team, it's really anyone's guess who it would be, but one very feasible seeming option would be CB Antoine Winfield, whom the Redskins courted earlier in the off-season before he signed with Seattle. He was a surprise exclusion from the Seahawks' 53, but all reports are that he will be moved or released, and the Skins might still have interest in his services.



Update, 6:15pm: Surprisingly, it seems that Antoine Winfield has decided to retire.

Update, 6:50pm: Marvin Burdett has been cut, but apparently the team plans to keep four quarterbacks for the time being and cut neither White nor Grossman. That's a surprise.

Update, 7:00pm: As anticipated, Dezmon Briscoe waived/injured. 

New post! Cut day!

Sadly, Chase Minnifield was cut.

The Redskins will try to put him on the practice squad, but I'm worried he won't make it through waivers. I really like Minnifield, and think he earned a roster spot in the preseason, particularly with Crawford's injury. It's hard to imagine the team keeping just 4 corners, so Jerome Murphy probably has the 5th corner spot sewn up. Murphy showed pretty well, but I would prefer Minnifield if it's a choice between the two. I think he has more upside and played better in the pre-season.

Also released were DeJon Gomes, Keiland Williams, and Tony Pashos, and Dez Briscoe is considered likely to be placed on IR. He looked good in preseason, but apparently the shoulder separation he suffered in Tampa (I was there!) is going to keep him out upwards of a month, and the Redskins are likely to just go ahead and IR him. Those are all guys who had a legitimate shot to make the team, so it will be interesting to see how that is going to affect the shape of the roster.

Kevin Matthews has just now been announced cut, which I expected, but in light of the Pashos release, that means almost certainly that the team will be keeping only 8 offensive linemen, at least until Maurice Hurt gets presumably activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list after 6 weeks, when he's likely to take someone's spot, and unless the team decides to give up on LeRibeus so soon, it will probably be at the expense of someone at a different position.

Very good news for Chris Thompson and Evan Royster; it seems like we will keep 4 HBs given the other cuts, which would include both of them. At his touchdown return in Tampa, I commented that Thompson likely just played his way back onto the roster, and I'm pretty happy to see us keep a talented rookie who can help out in the return game. Royster also had a great game, and Keiland Williams, his top competition for the third running back spot, was cut today, so he will almost certainly be kept as well.

The cuts elsewhere are probably good news for Philip Merling, who I expect to be held onto at DE after Bowen, Golston, and Baker with Jarvis Jenkins suspended for the first four contests.

Also, I assume DeJon Gomes' release means Jordan Pugh is likely to be our 4th safety with Rambo, Meriweather, and Doughty.

Crunching the numbers, it looks like we have 46 players I'd consider locks, and 49 spots I'd consider locks (3rd QB and 3rd HB being the lock positions without a definite player) at this point.

Given that that leaves us with 6 open roster spots, it seems almost certain that both Thompson and Royster are going to make it for 4 HBs, and Grossman or maybe White gets one of the remaining 3 to be the third QB. Grossman is the incubent and likely winner, but I'm hoping for White. We know what we have (not a lot) in Grossman, and I think White has a little more upside as well as the potential to perhaps contribute in occasional gadget plays, which is nice from a third quarterback who is instead just a dead spot on the roster being used for insurance. Additionally, losing RG3 (or even Kirk Cousins, who has underrated speed) would mean a big blow to the run game, not just for his yardage, but also the read option and bootleg scrambling threat he provides, which would make opposing defenses' jobs a lot easier and put more pressure on the passing game, which isn't something we want with Grossman back there. At least White can keep defenses honest and open things up. He played the entire game against the Buccaneers, and seemed to pretty consistently make good reads and extend plays, though his accuracy on what should be routine throws was worrisome. Instead of tossing a dumpoff into the waiting arms of the outlet receiver or back so they can get running and try and get yards, a lot of the short passes were close enough to catch but required adjustment on the receiver's part to do so. Not ideal, but I would still endorse him over Grossman, who looked as bipolar as ever this preseason, stringing together consistently solid performances for a while and then spending a spell throwing ducks all over the field and seemingly aiming for defenders.

One of  the remaining spots could involve some competition at safety. Although, as I said before, Gomes' departure is a big boost to Pugh's chances, another dark horse guy who has played well this pre-season is safety Jose Gumbs. Though possible, the Redskins might not keep five safeties to save both Gumbs' and Pugh's spots, so I the two may in direct competition, with the loser likely headed to the practice squad. I would say Pugh is the favorite, but Gumbs has a shot if they choose only one. We'll see later today.

I had previously considered whether the team might keep a 6th WR, which would be either Nick Williams, who had a good game to close out the pre-season, or Skye Dawson, who impressed in the off-season and can contribute as a return-man. Briscoe would also be an option, and perhaps a likely one if he were healthy, but it sounds like the team will place him on IR. However, recently, both Dawson and then Williams were waived, which means the only way there could be a sixth receiver is if they kept Briscoe on in spite of his injury, which is very unlikely. Additionally, it would have been dicey to keep four halfbacks, four tight ends, and six wide receivers, especially on top of the presumptive three quarterbacks.

One more competitor for a final roster spot could be linebacker Marvin Burdett, conspicuous on the cut lists by his absence. Few people have considered him a serious possibility to make the final roster, but given that he hasn't yet been reported released, he might do so. If he is kept as a fifth ILB, it will be because the Redskins like what he brings on kick coverage, where there are some concerns, particularly after Lorenzo Alexander's off-season departure for Arizona.

The last thing to consider about the active roster is the suspended and PUP guys, who are out for 4 and 6 weeks respectively that don't count against the current count: Jarvis Jenkins (4 games), Rob Jackson (4 games), Maurice Hurt (6 games), and Adam Carriker (6 games). I anticipate that Carriker will likely be placed on injured reserve when his deadline is up if he doesn't really surprise, but the other three are likely to be activated to the roster and cost three other guys spots. Jarvis Jenkins will probably take Merling's spot to keep us at four DEs. Doubting that LeRibeus gets dropped, I'm expecting he takes the spot of someone at a different position, and Jackson is uncertain. I think the team would like to keep Brandon Jenkins and Daryl Tapp in addition to bringing Jackson back, since both have looked good in the pre-season and Jim Haslett has had a field day with packages getting 3 or 4 of those guys on the field at once to pressure opposing passers in different ways. That said, if one of them plays poorly, they could keep the status quo at OLB numbers and replace them with Jackson. Still, I think it's more likely that both Jackson and Hurt take spots of guys elsewhere on the team.

One possibility that I haven't seen mentioned by anyone, but has seemed more and more plausible to me as I've continued to consider it is that, if RG3 and Cousins both look healthy and effective through 6 weeks, the team might feel comfortable cutting the third QB for Maurice Hurt when he comes back, which leaves just one spot to figure out for Jackson's return after 4 weeks. Obviously, the team might not even have decided yet, and if there are any significant injuries that could change things completely as well.

Next post will detail expectations for the roster's final look.

Upcoming Washington/New York Monday Night Football Has a Surprisingly Good Chance of Determining the Divsion

Washington is at 5-6 with a lot of problems, so I would be hard-pressed to call them a good, division-winning, or playoff-deserving caliber of team. That said, they might have a shot at at least two of those distinctions this year due to the relatively weak performance of NFC East teams combined with remaining schedules, particularly the amount of intra-divisional match-ups left on the Redskins' schedule.

Outside of the division, we have Ravens and Browns left. If we go 1-1 in those games, which seems likely, we're looking at 6-7 with 1 game against each other NFC East team left. Though they aren't guaranteed by any means, one has to think we have a good shot at sweeping the Eagles, who are in full-on self-destruct mode, and the Cowboys, than whom we looked much better on Thanksgiving. That puts us at 8-7 with the Giants game left. Obviously the Giants are the favorite, but with an NFC East game and how we looked against them last time, it is by no means assured, and beating them would likely result in both teams ending the year with 9-7 records and Washington having the tie-breaker over New York. How absurd would that be?

Giants (7-4) have a pretty tough road remaining, with the games other than ours being New Orleans, who is starting to look pretty dangerous, the 1-loss Falcons, the 2-loss Ravens, and a divisional game against the Eagles. If they go 2-2 against the Falcons, Ravens, Saints, and Eagles, they're sitting at 9-6 with our MNF game being the remainder.

Obviously that's a lot of if's and assumptions, but nothing outlandish. This MNF game could really matter. A Giants win borderline clinches them the division, while a Washington victory makes things very interesting in the NFC East from here on out.

In addition to that, Washington oddly enough holds a lot of key head-to-head tiebreakers owing to victories over Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Dallas, which comprise all the present 6-5 teams in the NFC as well as the 5-6 Cowboys. As such, if we manage to perform well from here on out but don't win the division, our taking a wild-card playoff spot is still very feasible.

The Final Roster is Announced! Thoughts and Depth Chart Predictions

I was thinking of writing up a projected roster, but it didn't make much sense to do so when the last game was only a couple days away from the announcement, I didn't bother. Anyway, it was announced with a few surprises.

You can see the full roster (as well as IR, PUP, and now practice squad) at the now-updated official site.

There were a few surprises: Tim Hightower got cut, for instance. The noteworthy cuts include Hightower, WRs Anthony Armstrong and Terrence Austin, ILB Brian Kehl, OLB  Markus White, DE Darrion Scott, and OT Willie Smith.

The only draft pick that was placed on the practice squad was tackle Tom Compton

FS Tanard Jackson, unfortunately, was suspended indefinitely, to be reviewed no sooner than 2013 for substance policy violations.

CB Kevin Barnes was traded to the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick (I'd guess around a 5th)

A trade was in the works moving Armstrong to Miami in exchange for HB Steve Slaton. It fell through, but the Dolphins claimed Armstrong and cut Slaton, so it could still effectively happen.

The Redskins also claimed CB Crezdon Butler off waivers from Arizona. Even with Butler's addition, the Redskins have only 5 cornerbacks, with Hall supposedly playing some safety this year, and Cedric Griffin being somewhat of a CB/FS hybrid (as well as very bad, judging by this pre-season).

It's looking like Josh Wilson is the only player in our secondary who is going to be really good this year. Maybe Brandon Merriweather as well if we get lucky and he has something of a renaissance.

That is especially disappointing as our front seven, particularly the linebackers, should be very impressive, both in terms of the starters and depth.

The Redskins just released a new depth chart but that isn't a guarantee, especially for Mike Shanahan, who is known for being secretive in that regard. Here is how I predict it shaking out to start with or soon into the season:

QB: Robert Griffin III
QB2: Rex Grossman
QB3: Kirk Cousins
HB1: Evan Royster (to start the season, this will probably rotate)
HB2: Roy Helu
HB3: Alfred Morris
FB: Darrel Young
WR1: Pierre Garcon
WR2: Leonard Hankerson
WR3(slot): Santana Moss
WR4: Josh Morgan
WR5: Aldrick Robinson
WR5: Dezmon Briscoe
WR6: Brandon Banks
TE1: Fred Davis
TE2: Niles Paul
TE3: Logan Paulsen
LT: Trent Williams
LT2: Maurice Hurt (listed here, but it wouldn't surprise me if he were the pick to replace/stand in for Lichtensteiger if necessary too)
LG: Kory Lichtensteiger
LG2: Josh LaRibeus
C: Will Montgomery (if Montgomery were hurt, Lichtensteiger would move in, and he'd be replaced at guard)
RG: Chris Chester
RG2: Adam Gettis
RT: Tyler Polombus
RT2: Jordan Black

LDE: Adam Carriker
LDE2: Jarvis Jenkins
NT: Barry Cofield
NT2: Chris Baker
RDE: Stephen Bowen
RDE2: Kedric Golston
LOLB: Ryan Kerrigan
LOLB2: Chris Wilson
LILB: London Fletcher
LILB2: Lorenzo Alexander
RILB: Perry Riley
RILB2: Keenan Robinson
ROLB: Brian Orakpo
ROLB2: Rob Jackson (note: given their skillsets, I think it would actually make more sence to switch Jackson and Wilson)
CB1: Josh Wilson (may list it as D.Hall, but Wilson is our ace)
CB2: DeAngelo Hall
CB3: Cedric Griffin (Hall will probably man the slot with Griffin taking his outside spot in the nickel)
CB4: Richard Crawford
CB5: Crezdon Butler
FS: Madieu Williams (bleh)
FS2: DeJon Gomes
SS: Brandon Merriweather
SS2: Reed Doughty
SS3: Jordan Bernstine

K/KO: Billy Cundiff
P: Sav Rocca
KR: Brandon Banks
KR2: Niles Paul
KR3: Aldrick Robinson
PR: Brandon Banks
PR2: Santana Moss
PR3: Aldrick Robinson
LS: Nick Sundberg

Bold indicates my prediction for the game-day active 46. Of the inactives, the player that seems most likely to be active would be Logan Paulsen to function as a blocking specialist. If he were, it would probably be at the expense of Alfred Morris, whichever of Josh Morgan or Leonard Hankerson isn't starting (the present official depth chart indicates Morgan as the starter, but I expect Hankerson to, at least most of the time), or Richard Crawford. If they want to use Dezmon Briscoe, he could also be activated in place of Morgan/Hankerson, but I think he's the most likely odd man out. Backup offensive linemen are hard to predict as well, but Black is pretty definite as a swing tackle, and I think with his experience playing last year and some tackle/guard flexibility (since Lichtensteiger would most likely move to center if Montgomery went down, Hurt is likely as well. That said, both LeRibeus and Gettis have been learning Center as well as their natural Guard, so they could be active instead of Hurt (between the two, I'd probably put my money on Gettis, despite LeRibeus being drafted much higher)

Preseason game 3: Colts at Redskins

Luck vs. RG3 (sort of). Well, both played pretty well. Here are my thoughts from the game, upon watching and re-watching plays of note.

The game starts off with a surprise as Niles Paul was back there returning the kickoff instead of Brandon Banks. Odd for a tight end, but he did well, bringing it back around 40 yards. It made me wonder whether Banks' spot was either decided, for better or worse, or if he would be playing a lot as a receiver. He didn't get much offensive work, though. I think the Shanahans must like Paul, and are trying hard to find ways for him to contribute, between swtiching his position, all the work he's gotten, and now this. In addition, Chris Cooley's release was (sadly) announced today, pretty much assuring Paul a decent role as the backup tight end.

In addition, to that return surprise, Santana Moss was back on a couple punt returns. As much as I like Banks and want to keep him, Moss has always been an absolutely stellar punt returner, so now that we don't need him as the #1 receiver, I think letting him contribute on returns is a wise move.

With Hightower playing, Alfred Morris was still the starter, and had a great day. He still isn't a special talent or anything, but the offensive line opened holes for him today and he took advantage to the tune of 14 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. When given opportunities, he'll consistently get a few yards and fall forward. He looked particularly impressive later in the game, though I'm not sure whether that's indicative of his wearing down the Colts' defense, or merely that he was going against less talented backups at that time. I was also pleased to see a good block from Morris at one point. If that's indicative of how he blocks, perhaps the halfback/fullback hybrid role I mentioned could be a good spot.

On that note, the offensive line had a great day in the run game, and was decent in pass protection, marking by far the best outing they've had this pre-season. The only line-up change was Chris Chester back for Josh LaRibeus and Adam Gettis at right guard. After the way he played last season, I can't imagine his presence having such a positive impact, but whatever the cause, it was good to see. Undoubtedly part of their success can be attributed to defensive generosity by the Colts.

The left side of the line blocked much better than the right, though, unsurprisingly. Maurice Hurt has been working hard and is starting to look like a fairly legitimate option. That said, he's not really ready to be a good starter, so if Kory Lichtensteiger is healthy and back to form, he and Trent Williams should be a good left side. Jammal Brown being put in the PUP list means for at least a quarter or third of the season, Tyler Polumbus (unless he loses the job to another backup) is going to be our right tackle; that doesn't bode well at all.

There were still blocking mis-cues, however, as the Colts' Freeman blitzed right through the middle of the line on two separate plays without being picked up, allowing free hits on RG3, one of which was particularly hard. You can't leave a pass rusher unblocked up the middle. Every coach down to Pop Warner teaches that you block inside out, so if you can't handle all the rushers, your quarterback has the maximum time to get rid of the ball or move.