Griffin vs. Cousins: Downfield throws, Touchdowns, and Interceptions

Was just doing some research comparing the two. Here are the results:

Griffin: 30 starts, 30 games played

17 Interceptions to 36 TD throws (as well as 7 rushing)

Cousins: 8 starts, 13 games played

18 interceptions to 18 thrown (none rushing)

I was approached with the theory that it's an unfair comparison because Cousins pushes the ball down field and goes deep vastly more often than Griffin, so I decided to look at that, for the sake of replacing pervasive impressions with accurate information. Here are the actual numbers. To note, this is obviously skewed in Cousins' favor because a great deal of his throws have been with the more-vertically-aggressive Gruden compared to Griffin's throws with Shanahan, as well as because Cousins has had better weapons than Griffin (particularly one of the league's best deep threats in Jackson). Regardless, here are the raw numbers as they stood before today's game vs. Arizona.

Cousins, excluding today's game, has gone more than 10 yards downfield on 123 throws, out of a total of 363 attempts (33.9%). 38 out of his 363 were throws of 20+ yards (10.5%).

Griffin has gone more than 10 yards downfield on 280 throws, out of a total of 907 attempts (30.9%). 80 of Griffin's 907 attempts were 20+ yards (8.9%).

To make those splits more explicit, that means that Cousins throws between 10 and 20 yards 23.4% of the time, compared to Griffin's 22.1% The difference, then, in Cousins' favor is 1.3% on 10-19 yard throws, and 1.6% on 20+.

Griffin's biggest issues

Quick post highlighting what seem to me to be RG3's biggest problems right now based on last season and what has continued into this pre-season with the brace off and in a new offense:

1) Sometimes blatantly stares down a receiver. He needs to either scan like on any other pass play or get the ball out quickly, but sometimes-- I think when he knows where he's going to try and go with the ball-- he turns right to a guy but hesitates before throwing. I think the second of looking at the receiver might indicate that he doesn't trust the guy so he's trying to watch and make sure he's there and whatever, but it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy because that extra time spent telegraphing gives corners an easy opportunity to position themselves to sit on the route. These are generally his most egregious plays. If it's predetermined where he is going to go with the ball he needs to go there, not wait and then throw. If it's not, then he needs to go through his progressions until a guy is open. Those plays are the worst of both worlds.

2) Sliding. I don't know why it's so hard for him, but he's the worst slider ever. Every time he goes to the ground he looks liable to hurt himself, and half the time he gets hit anyway.

3) Sometimes-lazy footwork. His accuracy declines considerably when he doesn't stick with his mechanics. Not sure if compensating for his knee last year might have gotten him into some bad habits, because this wasn't such an issue his rookie season, but they need to be broken. He can place the ball very well almost anywhere on the field when he is meticulous about his form.

4) Knowing when to throw it away. I think a lot of his awful plays/interceptions are times when he knows it's not a high-percentage throw but is under pressure or its 3rd down or something and he tries to force it instead of living to fight another day. Griffin almost never just throws the ball away (or, decides to try and do it too late and gets hit and the ball goes bobbling off his hand). Contrast someone like Peyton Manning, where like 20% of his throws are out of bounds. He seems to be giving up on plays a little more often nowadays, but he usually runs it out of bounds when he does instead of throwing it away. Sometimes it's because he boots out to extend and see if he can find a seem up the sideline, but he should decide he doesn't sooner and chuck it instead of getting hit heading out or taking a 3 yard loss by sacking himself out of bounds.

5) Sometimes makes bad/inconsistent choices on when to pull it down and run and when not to. That's the kind of thing that will just come with time, though, as he works to transition his game.

Most of these were either non-present or very minimal issues in his stellar rookie year. I think some of them are a component of the way he's in his head trying to alter his game. The foot mechanics one is most worrisome, in my opinion. Now that he's completely healthy, Gruden needs to whip his ass back into shape, mechanics-wise.

Advocating the ZBS to Jay Gruden

Update 2/6: Gruden and McVay have indicated that the offense will not change much, so this is looking good/promising. Still not specifics on blocking scheme, though.

Since Jay Gruden was announced as the Redskins’ new head coach, there has been a lot of talk about how that will impact RG3, but not enough about how it will affect the team’s blocking. What has been written is inconsistent, largely incorrect or baseless.

The truth is that he ran a fairly normal blocking scheme in Cincinnati with both power and zone fronts on different plays, just like his brother did in Tampa.  It’s noteworthy that when Gruden called zones, he favored inside zone runs as opposed to the long stretch runs that Shanahan has always used to great effect. His plays tend to involve more linemen pulling to lead block than Shanahan’s did, like in another of his bread-and-butter plays: the 96(right) or 97(left) power, an off-tackle run with the backside guard pulling.

However, the important thing to focus on is not what he ran in Cincinnati, but what he will run in Washington. Gruden is a smart coach who knows how to get the most out of his offense, so he should be willing to adapt to his situation. Right now his situation should lead him to embrace zone blocking. He doesn’t need to run it almost-exclusively like Mike and Kyle Shanahan did, but it should absolutely remain the primary blocking scheme the Redskins use.

First, the running game was never the problem during the Shanahan era, so why fix what ain’t broke? The Redskins are the only team in the NFL to finish in the top 5 in both rushing yards and yards per carry each of the last two seasons. More to the point, the team is designed to facilitate the ZBS. Nowhere else in the league will you find a 284 lb. starting guard (Kory Lichtensteiger). Trent Williams is the only lineman on the Redskins who I am confident could transition to and excel in other offenses. No other starter was drafted earlier than the 5th round, and two began their careers playing for Shanahan in Denver. Montgomery, the second best lineman, couldn’t stick on a roster until the Redskins signed him. Lichtensteiger, the third best, was drafted by Shanahan to the Broncos. After Shanahan got fired, he was cut and spent a season out of football until Shanahan signed him again in Washington. Point being, these aren’t cream-of-the-crop linemen, they are linemen who have a specific skill set and fit a specific scheme.

Sure, they could put on some weight, but they still wouldn’t be maulers and having them attempt too much power blocking would be downplaying their greatest strength: the speed and footwork to reach block, cut block and get to the second level. The entire line (outside Williams) is undersized and quick, allowing them to get their hands on linebackers and defensive backs, not blow defensive tackles off the ball with strength.

It extends past the line, though: Alfred Morris is an ideal zone running halfback. He isn’t the most talented player, but he has great patience and vision, and can make a cut and explode into a hole when it develops. These are the most important qualities for a runner in a zone scheme. Even Roy Helu and Evan Royster were drafted for their ability to identify and slip into creases in a blocking scheme.

Lastly, it must be taken into account that standout offensive line coach Chris Foerster is still with the team and former tight ends coach/3rd down package planner Sean McVay has been promoted to Offensive Coordinator, so the people working with the offense are comfortable with zone runs. The Redskins don’t have such a plethora of talent or draft picks to add new talent that they can afford to ignore the best way to use their players, and both in front and back, the offensive roster is very clearly designed to run zone schemes. Gruden should embrace that.

Upcoming Washington/New York Monday Night Football Has a Surprisingly Good Chance of Determining the Divsion

Washington is at 5-6 with a lot of problems, so I would be hard-pressed to call them a good, division-winning, or playoff-deserving caliber of team. That said, they might have a shot at at least two of those distinctions this year due to the relatively weak performance of NFC East teams combined with remaining schedules, particularly the amount of intra-divisional match-ups left on the Redskins' schedule.

Outside of the division, we have Ravens and Browns left. If we go 1-1 in those games, which seems likely, we're looking at 6-7 with 1 game against each other NFC East team left. Though they aren't guaranteed by any means, one has to think we have a good shot at sweeping the Eagles, who are in full-on self-destruct mode, and the Cowboys, than whom we looked much better on Thanksgiving. That puts us at 8-7 with the Giants game left. Obviously the Giants are the favorite, but with an NFC East game and how we looked against them last time, it is by no means assured, and beating them would likely result in both teams ending the year with 9-7 records and Washington having the tie-breaker over New York. How absurd would that be?

Giants (7-4) have a pretty tough road remaining, with the games other than ours being New Orleans, who is starting to look pretty dangerous, the 1-loss Falcons, the 2-loss Ravens, and a divisional game against the Eagles. If they go 2-2 against the Falcons, Ravens, Saints, and Eagles, they're sitting at 9-6 with our MNF game being the remainder.

Obviously that's a lot of if's and assumptions, but nothing outlandish. This MNF game could really matter. A Giants win borderline clinches them the division, while a Washington victory makes things very interesting in the NFC East from here on out.

In addition to that, Washington oddly enough holds a lot of key head-to-head tiebreakers owing to victories over Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Dallas, which comprise all the present 6-5 teams in the NFC as well as the 5-6 Cowboys. As such, if we manage to perform well from here on out but don't win the division, our taking a wild-card playoff spot is still very feasible.