Upcoming Washington/New York Monday Night Football Has a Surprisingly Good Chance of Determining the Divsion

Washington is at 5-6 with a lot of problems, so I would be hard-pressed to call them a good, division-winning, or playoff-deserving caliber of team. That said, they might have a shot at at least two of those distinctions this year due to the relatively weak performance of NFC East teams combined with remaining schedules, particularly the amount of intra-divisional match-ups left on the Redskins' schedule.

Outside of the division, we have Ravens and Browns left. If we go 1-1 in those games, which seems likely, we're looking at 6-7 with 1 game against each other NFC East team left. Though they aren't guaranteed by any means, one has to think we have a good shot at sweeping the Eagles, who are in full-on self-destruct mode, and the Cowboys, than whom we looked much better on Thanksgiving. That puts us at 8-7 with the Giants game left. Obviously the Giants are the favorite, but with an NFC East game and how we looked against them last time, it is by no means assured, and beating them would likely result in both teams ending the year with 9-7 records and Washington having the tie-breaker over New York. How absurd would that be?

Giants (7-4) have a pretty tough road remaining, with the games other than ours being New Orleans, who is starting to look pretty dangerous, the 1-loss Falcons, the 2-loss Ravens, and a divisional game against the Eagles. If they go 2-2 against the Falcons, Ravens, Saints, and Eagles, they're sitting at 9-6 with our MNF game being the remainder.

Obviously that's a lot of if's and assumptions, but nothing outlandish. This MNF game could really matter. A Giants win borderline clinches them the division, while a Washington victory makes things very interesting in the NFC East from here on out.

In addition to that, Washington oddly enough holds a lot of key head-to-head tiebreakers owing to victories over Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Dallas, which comprise all the present 6-5 teams in the NFC as well as the 5-6 Cowboys. As such, if we manage to perform well from here on out but don't win the division, our taking a wild-card playoff spot is still very feasible.

The Final Roster is Announced! Thoughts and Depth Chart Predictions

I was thinking of writing up a projected roster, but it didn't make much sense to do so when the last game was only a couple days away from the announcement, I didn't bother. Anyway, it was announced with a few surprises.

You can see the full roster (as well as IR, PUP, and now practice squad) at the now-updated official site.

There were a few surprises: Tim Hightower got cut, for instance. The noteworthy cuts include Hightower, WRs Anthony Armstrong and Terrence Austin, ILB Brian Kehl, OLB  Markus White, DE Darrion Scott, and OT Willie Smith.

The only draft pick that was placed on the practice squad was tackle Tom Compton

FS Tanard Jackson, unfortunately, was suspended indefinitely, to be reviewed no sooner than 2013 for substance policy violations.

CB Kevin Barnes was traded to the Dolphins for an undisclosed draft pick (I'd guess around a 5th)

A trade was in the works moving Armstrong to Miami in exchange for HB Steve Slaton. It fell through, but the Dolphins claimed Armstrong and cut Slaton, so it could still effectively happen.

The Redskins also claimed CB Crezdon Butler off waivers from Arizona. Even with Butler's addition, the Redskins have only 5 cornerbacks, with Hall supposedly playing some safety this year, and Cedric Griffin being somewhat of a CB/FS hybrid (as well as very bad, judging by this pre-season).

It's looking like Josh Wilson is the only player in our secondary who is going to be really good this year. Maybe Brandon Merriweather as well if we get lucky and he has something of a renaissance.

That is especially disappointing as our front seven, particularly the linebackers, should be very impressive, both in terms of the starters and depth.

The Redskins just released a new depth chart but that isn't a guarantee, especially for Mike Shanahan, who is known for being secretive in that regard. Here is how I predict it shaking out to start with or soon into the season:

QB: Robert Griffin III
QB2: Rex Grossman
QB3: Kirk Cousins
HB1: Evan Royster (to start the season, this will probably rotate)
HB2: Roy Helu
HB3: Alfred Morris
FB: Darrel Young
WR1: Pierre Garcon
WR2: Leonard Hankerson
WR3(slot): Santana Moss
WR4: Josh Morgan
WR5: Aldrick Robinson
WR5: Dezmon Briscoe
WR6: Brandon Banks
TE1: Fred Davis
TE2: Niles Paul
TE3: Logan Paulsen
LT: Trent Williams
LT2: Maurice Hurt (listed here, but it wouldn't surprise me if he were the pick to replace/stand in for Lichtensteiger if necessary too)
LG: Kory Lichtensteiger
LG2: Josh LaRibeus
C: Will Montgomery (if Montgomery were hurt, Lichtensteiger would move in, and he'd be replaced at guard)
RG: Chris Chester
RG2: Adam Gettis
RT: Tyler Polombus
RT2: Jordan Black

LDE: Adam Carriker
LDE2: Jarvis Jenkins
NT: Barry Cofield
NT2: Chris Baker
RDE: Stephen Bowen
RDE2: Kedric Golston
LOLB: Ryan Kerrigan
LOLB2: Chris Wilson
LILB: London Fletcher
LILB2: Lorenzo Alexander
RILB: Perry Riley
RILB2: Keenan Robinson
ROLB: Brian Orakpo
ROLB2: Rob Jackson (note: given their skillsets, I think it would actually make more sence to switch Jackson and Wilson)
CB1: Josh Wilson (may list it as D.Hall, but Wilson is our ace)
CB2: DeAngelo Hall
CB3: Cedric Griffin (Hall will probably man the slot with Griffin taking his outside spot in the nickel)
CB4: Richard Crawford
CB5: Crezdon Butler
FS: Madieu Williams (bleh)
FS2: DeJon Gomes
SS: Brandon Merriweather
SS2: Reed Doughty
SS3: Jordan Bernstine

K/KO: Billy Cundiff
P: Sav Rocca
KR: Brandon Banks
KR2: Niles Paul
KR3: Aldrick Robinson
PR: Brandon Banks
PR2: Santana Moss
PR3: Aldrick Robinson
LS: Nick Sundberg

Bold indicates my prediction for the game-day active 46. Of the inactives, the player that seems most likely to be active would be Logan Paulsen to function as a blocking specialist. If he were, it would probably be at the expense of Alfred Morris, whichever of Josh Morgan or Leonard Hankerson isn't starting (the present official depth chart indicates Morgan as the starter, but I expect Hankerson to, at least most of the time), or Richard Crawford. If they want to use Dezmon Briscoe, he could also be activated in place of Morgan/Hankerson, but I think he's the most likely odd man out. Backup offensive linemen are hard to predict as well, but Black is pretty definite as a swing tackle, and I think with his experience playing last year and some tackle/guard flexibility (since Lichtensteiger would most likely move to center if Montgomery went down, Hurt is likely as well. That said, both LeRibeus and Gettis have been learning Center as well as their natural Guard, so they could be active instead of Hurt (between the two, I'd probably put my money on Gettis, despite LeRibeus being drafted much higher)

Redskins trim the roster/We'll miss you, Cooley

Sadly, Chris Cooley, formerly the longest-tenured Redskin player (9 years), was released. He may have wanted to go somewhere he might find a starting job, but the writing was pretty much on the wall with his 3.8 million dollar price tag this season. Still, as unsurprising as the move is, it's a big disappointment. He was a great Redskin, and I held out hope that we'd hang onto him or he'd accept a pay cut. He'll get picked up by another team, and I wish him the best there. RG3 had a lovely tweet thanking Cooley for his work and helping teach him.

This does make my purely speculative talk of Alfred Morris as a potential HB/FB hybrid more feasible. Cooley was acting as the backup FB, and since I doubt Dorson Boyce makes the roster, it would probably be between a halfback like Morris or presumptive 3rd string (blocking) TE Logan Paulsen to back Darrel Young up.

Preseason game 3: Colts at Redskins

Luck vs. RG3 (sort of). Well, both played pretty well. Here are my thoughts from the game, upon watching and re-watching plays of note.

The game starts off with a surprise as Niles Paul was back there returning the kickoff instead of Brandon Banks. Odd for a tight end, but he did well, bringing it back around 40 yards. It made me wonder whether Banks' spot was either decided, for better or worse, or if he would be playing a lot as a receiver. He didn't get much offensive work, though. I think the Shanahans must like Paul, and are trying hard to find ways for him to contribute, between swtiching his position, all the work he's gotten, and now this. In addition, Chris Cooley's release was (sadly) announced today, pretty much assuring Paul a decent role as the backup tight end.

In addition, to that return surprise, Santana Moss was back on a couple punt returns. As much as I like Banks and want to keep him, Moss has always been an absolutely stellar punt returner, so now that we don't need him as the #1 receiver, I think letting him contribute on returns is a wise move.

With Hightower playing, Alfred Morris was still the starter, and had a great day. He still isn't a special talent or anything, but the offensive line opened holes for him today and he took advantage to the tune of 14 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. When given opportunities, he'll consistently get a few yards and fall forward. He looked particularly impressive later in the game, though I'm not sure whether that's indicative of his wearing down the Colts' defense, or merely that he was going against less talented backups at that time. I was also pleased to see a good block from Morris at one point. If that's indicative of how he blocks, perhaps the halfback/fullback hybrid role I mentioned could be a good spot.

On that note, the offensive line had a great day in the run game, and was decent in pass protection, marking by far the best outing they've had this pre-season. The only line-up change was Chris Chester back for Josh LaRibeus and Adam Gettis at right guard. After the way he played last season, I can't imagine his presence having such a positive impact, but whatever the cause, it was good to see. Undoubtedly part of their success can be attributed to defensive generosity by the Colts.

The left side of the line blocked much better than the right, though, unsurprisingly. Maurice Hurt has been working hard and is starting to look like a fairly legitimate option. That said, he's not really ready to be a good starter, so if Kory Lichtensteiger is healthy and back to form, he and Trent Williams should be a good left side. Jammal Brown being put in the PUP list means for at least a quarter or third of the season, Tyler Polumbus (unless he loses the job to another backup) is going to be our right tackle; that doesn't bode well at all.

There were still blocking mis-cues, however, as the Colts' Freeman blitzed right through the middle of the line on two separate plays without being picked up, allowing free hits on RG3, one of which was particularly hard. You can't leave a pass rusher unblocked up the middle. Every coach down to Pop Warner teaches that you block inside out, so if you can't handle all the rushers, your quarterback has the maximum time to get rid of the ball or move.

Preseason Week 2 @ Chicago

The team, particularly the starters, looked a bit shakier this game, though there was some good as well. Notes below.

-Offensive line looked slightly better in the run game; it wasn't a great showing, but on certain plays they opened up good holes for Morris or Royster. On the other hand, in pass protection, they looked weaker this game, and RG3 had to do a lot of scrambling, and was still sacked 3 times. The weakest link was clearly Tyler Polombus at RT, who was routinely beaten by Israel Idonije (2.5 sacks, 1 FF).

-On the fumble, Trent Williams and Maurice Hurt doubled Julius Peppers on the weak side. Tight end Niles Paul released up field leaving Major Wright, who was sitting on the line of scrimmage, a free blitz at the quarterback. RG3 scrambled up past him, but Idonije, who was being single-teamed by Fred Davis on the other side, had gotten free by then and hit Griffin from behind. There were a lot of protection issues on that play. I have no idea why an obvious blitzer was allowed to run free. It looked like Chris Cooley was supposed to be helping Davis with Idonije, but barely got a chip on his outside shoulder as he got into Davis. Later in the play, Hurt seemed to switch in and help on a defensive tackle, and Williams let Peppers go, who ended up recovering the fumble. It was a terrible mess coming out of a 3-TE set.

-Brandon Banks did very well as a returner. Chicago has a top-notch coverage unit, but he still had multiple good returns, including a 95-yard punt return for a touchdown. He didn't get used much on offense this game, but I can't see the team cutting him. There was a Post article this past week saying that his showing in game 1 wasn't great, and blaming him for some of the missed opportunities, claiming he didn't get good separation and slipped on a would-be reception. I couldn't disagree with them more, as I said last week, as I think he looked very sharp and was hamstrung by Grossman's inaccurate throws.

-Aldrick Robinson was very elusive on a catch-and-run for a touchdown, but otherwise didn't look very impressive. I'd like to see him on the practice squad for another season. 

-We're going to have secondary problems this season.

-Cedric Griffin was getting beaten quite a lot again. He has been unimpressive at corner from everything I've seen.

-Richard Crawford, on the other hand, had an outstanding game. The 7th round pick was good in coverage and frequently had his name called as he made plays. Almost snatched a great interception but couldn't quite hold on. Based on what I've seen, I wouldn't be against him as our 4th or even 3rd corner; I haven't seen much from Barnes and Griffin has looked bad, which leaves him and Brandyn Thompson.

-Alfred Morris got an extended look with the starters, pretty much confirming my thoughts from last weak. Runs very hard, but a bit of a plodder. Will fall forward, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him get some short-yardage work, but I wouldn't expect significant work running the ball from him without a lot of injuries. Then again, no one knows what's going to happen with a Shanahan running game.

Notes from pre-season game 1

I've only watched the game once so far, excluding a few select plays, but here are the initial notes I jotted down during, cleaned up a bit for intelligibility. I want to re-watch to focus on specific players, like the rookie OLmen and Jarvis Jenkins, but here are my first impressions.

General
-We looked alright; better than the Bills, but not incredible. Defense looked pretty good, but quite a lot of offensive miscues (for both teams) and our blocking could really hold us back if it doesn't improve.


-Scab refs are atrocious. In addition to the aforementioned call on Garcon, and a number of other missed obvious calls or made ticky tack calls, they had one glorious moment of declaring a Bills' punt a touchback when neither the ball nor player who caught it ever made it within 4 yards of the goalline. The head ref looked furious when the Bills challenged that, and of course the call was overturned.

-Announcers were just as awful. Mis-pronunciations, calling players by the wrong names, and huge biases abounded.   
 
Offense
-RG3 looks good. He didn't blow me away, and it was pretty conservative; mostly short-intermediate throws, and not a ton of moving around. However, his release was lightning-fast, he made good decisions, and a flick of the wrist put a lot of zip on the ball. Pretty good accuracy, especially shining on longer throws. Only two incompletions, one of which was really a completion on a 15 yard sideline throw to Pierre Garcon which the refs ruled out.

-Kirk Cousins really impressed. Very poised, mostly good decision-making, good accuracy, though, unlike Griffin, looked a lot better on shorter throws than deep ones. A few examples of him trying to fit a ball in somewhere he didn't have the ability to, but on the whole pleased.

-Grossman looked downright atrocious. Bad reads, lazy throws, inaccurate; he underthrew Helu on about a 3 yard dumpoff pass. If I were making the call based on this game alone, I would absolutely put Cousins as our primary backup. That said, Rex is more of a known quantity and knows the offense well, so we'll need to see how those two look in the rest of pre-season.

The Dawn of the RG3 Era

Thoroughly excited for the Redskins' first pre-season game in 15 minutes. Not thrilled to pay for pre-season, but living in Florida and suffering from severe Skins withdrawal, I of course ponied up, and will be recording for re-watchin and dissection purposes.

It was just announced that, with Chris Chester out, Adam Gettis is drawing the start at RG, which I'm happy to hear. I liked Gettis a lot before the draft, was happy we got him, and want to see how he plays. Of course, with 3 backup OLmen in (and a none-too-sure offensive line in the first place) I expect a fair amount of miscues and failed blocks, but still excited to see how he looks.

Also thrilled to see Leonard Hankerson getting the start opposite Pierre Garçon, with Moss no doubt manning the slot. I want him to get the opportunity and feel a little vindication at all the beat writers, analysts, and reporters throughout the off-season who have been pencilling Josh Morgan in as a starter and/or claiming Tana gets cut. As I've said all along, the starters should be either Garcon and Moss, with Moss sliding into the slot and Hankerson coming in at the X in 3-wide sets, or, if Hankerson is impressive enough, Garcon and Hankerson with Moss in the slot. Morgan has some talent, but let him sit at the 4th receiver spot, not block Hankerson.

Also, apologies for the nearly postless off-season. I've been busy with other things and the lack of a season going on blunted my motivation, I suppose. I've still been actively (obsessively?) following the Skins and NFL, though, and hopefully will get back into regular updates now that football is starting up again. I may analyze some post-draft off-season moves and reports at some point, but right now am too psyched to watch the Skins.

HTTR

London Fletcher is back in the fold!

Great news on that front. No contract details available yet.

We've also signed safeties Madieu Williams and Tanard Jackson. The former doesn't do anything for me, but I'm very happy with the latter, whom we signed about 2 days after the Bucs released him, ostensibly for failing a physical (coming back from injury), but presumably also for off-field transgressions. Still, he can be quite a good safety, and is a true free safety, which we still lacked with Gomes, Doughty, Williams, and Merriweather, so if he's healthy seeing him start opposite Gomes or Doughty would be nice. It is additionally notable that his former head coach Raheem Morris is working with our defensive backs this year, so that probably had a hand in our knowing what we're getting in Jackson, signing him so swiftly, and his interest in joining the Redskins. Likely means one of the others (smart money's on Williams) will be cut before the season.

It's alarming to me with all the moves we've made at safety and wide receiver how neglected our offensive line has been. Look for some mid-round picks to be spent on guards or tackles.