How I would have constructed the roster differently

The Redskins' initial 53-man roster has been decided. The offense is very close to what I predicted and what I would have done outside of HB, but defense has a few changes. For some reason, we kept six inside linebackers with another one on IR/designated to return (which was a very poor usage of that), as well as six defensive ends, with a seventh on PUP.

Cut: QB Colt McCoy, HB Silas Redd, DE Frank Kearse, ILB Adam Hayward, S Trenton Robinson

Keep: HB Lache Seastrunk, HB Chris Thompson, OLB Rob Jackson (or Everette Brown, for his special teams play), CB Richard Crawford, S Phillip Thomas

Roster predictions/evaluation- Defense and Special Teams

With the Redskins' final 2014 preseason snap played, we're less than 2 days out from the cut down to 53. Let's take a look at the prospects, what I think will happen, and what I think should happen.

bold: lock
italics: predicted roster spot
normal: off the roster  

Defense

 

Nose Tackle (1)
1. Barry Cofield
2. Chris Neild (Injured)

3. Robert Thomas
This is tricky, because I think Cofield and Neild were the pretty clear picks, but Neild hurt his knee against the Bucs last night, and there's speculation it might be a torn ACL. If that's the case, obviously he will be on injured reserve. Even then, I think the team opts for an extra defense end that can play the nose rather than keeping Thomas, leaving Cofield as the only true nose tackle (if you can call him that). 

Defensive End (5)
1. Jason Hatcher
2. Stephen Bowen (PUP?)
3. Chris Baker
4. Jarvis Jenkins
5. Kedric Golston
6. Clifton Geathers
7. Frank Kearse 
Six defensive ends is a lot, but seven total defensive linemen is reasonable. I predict Stephen Bowen starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, also, which means only 5 for the time being. Clifton Geathers has put together a very strong preseason and has the size to help out at nose tackle, so I think he makes the team, and I expect Golston to as well. 

Inside Linebacker (5)
1. Perry Riley
2. Keenan Robinson
3. Adam Hayward
4. Will Compton
5. Darryl Sharpton
6. Akeem Jordan (Injured. PUP?)

Roster predictions/evaluations- Offense

With the Redskins' final 2014 preseason snap played, we're less than 2 days out from the cut down to 53. Let's take a look at the prospects, what I think will happen, and what I think should happen.

bold: lock
italics: predicted roster spot
normal: off the 53-man roster  

Offense

Quarterback (3)
1. RG3
2. Kirk Cousins
3. Colt McCoy
Obviously Griffin an Cousins are locks. McCoy was decent this preseason, so it's mostly an issue of whether Gruden and Allen decide to keep 3 quarterbacks. I'd prefer we went with two because a third would mean losing out on someone who would help on a game-to-game basis. That said, I think we keep three.

Halfback (3)
1. Alfred Morris
2. Roy Helu (third down duties)
3. Chris Thompson
4. Silas Redd
5. Evan Royster
6. Lache Seastrunk

Thoughts from the final preseason game

Just some impressions I was left with on depth guys during pre-season game 4.

-Defensive front seven looks good, as they have all preseason. Should have a strong rotation here. We'll need it to cover for the secondary, but it's been an impressive effort.

-Unfortunately, that front seven will be weakened a little, as Chris Neild went down with a pretty painful-looking knee injury. Hopefully it isn't too serious, but my money isn't on it. Sad, as I'm a big fan of Neild's.

-Neither offense was making a ton of progress earlier in the game. Redskins' was more effective than Bucs', but still largely a series of alternating defensive stands.

-Ryan Grant was impressive. It's the same thing the team and beat writers have been saying about him all off-season and preseason, but he really knows what he's doing out there. Consistently runs good routes, stays very aware of the defense's placement to find coverage seams, and catches securely. He also displayed good feet on the sideline on more than one occasion. He may never be a 1500-yard receiver, but should be a reliable outlet when the chains need moving.

-Evan Royster is still what we all thought he was. He's reliable enough to get what's blocked, but not much more.

-Looked like Spencer Long was doing a good job of sticking with his guy and not getting beaten, but I'd like to see more power from him as he didn't get a ton of push. It looked like he needed to stay lower for leverage.

-Chris Thompson showed a lot more power than Royster, despite his strong suit being speed and finesse. He and Lache Seastrunk were vastly more impressive than Royster and Redd in this game.

Griffin's biggest issues

Quick post highlighting what seem to me to be RG3's biggest problems right now based on last season and what has continued into this pre-season with the brace off and in a new offense:

1) Sometimes blatantly stares down a receiver. He needs to either scan like on any other pass play or get the ball out quickly, but sometimes-- I think when he knows where he's going to try and go with the ball-- he turns right to a guy but hesitates before throwing. I think the second of looking at the receiver might indicate that he doesn't trust the guy so he's trying to watch and make sure he's there and whatever, but it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy because that extra time spent telegraphing gives corners an easy opportunity to position themselves to sit on the route. These are generally his most egregious plays. If it's predetermined where he is going to go with the ball he needs to go there, not wait and then throw. If it's not, then he needs to go through his progressions until a guy is open. Those plays are the worst of both worlds.

2) Sliding. I don't know why it's so hard for him, but he's the worst slider ever. Every time he goes to the ground he looks liable to hurt himself, and half the time he gets hit anyway.

3) Sometimes-lazy footwork. His accuracy declines considerably when he doesn't stick with his mechanics. Not sure if compensating for his knee last year might have gotten him into some bad habits, because this wasn't such an issue his rookie season, but they need to be broken. He can place the ball very well almost anywhere on the field when he is meticulous about his form.

4) Knowing when to throw it away. I think a lot of his awful plays/interceptions are times when he knows it's not a high-percentage throw but is under pressure or its 3rd down or something and he tries to force it instead of living to fight another day. Griffin almost never just throws the ball away (or, decides to try and do it too late and gets hit and the ball goes bobbling off his hand). Contrast someone like Peyton Manning, where like 20% of his throws are out of bounds. He seems to be giving up on plays a little more often nowadays, but he usually runs it out of bounds when he does instead of throwing it away. Sometimes it's because he boots out to extend and see if he can find a seem up the sideline, but he should decide he doesn't sooner and chuck it instead of getting hit heading out or taking a 3 yard loss by sacking himself out of bounds.

5) Sometimes makes bad/inconsistent choices on when to pull it down and run and when not to. That's the kind of thing that will just come with time, though, as he works to transition his game.

Most of these were either non-present or very minimal issues in his stellar rookie year. I think some of them are a component of the way he's in his head trying to alter his game. The foot mechanics one is most worrisome, in my opinion. Now that he's completely healthy, Gruden needs to whip his ass back into shape, mechanics-wise.

Advocating the ZBS to Jay Gruden

Update 2/6: Gruden and McVay have indicated that the offense will not change much, so this is looking good/promising. Still not specifics on blocking scheme, though.

Since Jay Gruden was announced as the Redskins’ new head coach, there has been a lot of talk about how that will impact RG3, but not enough about how it will affect the team’s blocking. What has been written is inconsistent, largely incorrect or baseless.

The truth is that he ran a fairly normal blocking scheme in Cincinnati with both power and zone fronts on different plays, just like his brother did in Tampa.  It’s noteworthy that when Gruden called zones, he favored inside zone runs as opposed to the long stretch runs that Shanahan has always used to great effect. His plays tend to involve more linemen pulling to lead block than Shanahan’s did, like in another of his bread-and-butter plays: the 96(right) or 97(left) power, an off-tackle run with the backside guard pulling.

However, the important thing to focus on is not what he ran in Cincinnati, but what he will run in Washington. Gruden is a smart coach who knows how to get the most out of his offense, so he should be willing to adapt to his situation. Right now his situation should lead him to embrace zone blocking. He doesn’t need to run it almost-exclusively like Mike and Kyle Shanahan did, but it should absolutely remain the primary blocking scheme the Redskins use.

First, the running game was never the problem during the Shanahan era, so why fix what ain’t broke? The Redskins are the only team in the NFL to finish in the top 5 in both rushing yards and yards per carry each of the last two seasons. More to the point, the team is designed to facilitate the ZBS. Nowhere else in the league will you find a 284 lb. starting guard (Kory Lichtensteiger). Trent Williams is the only lineman on the Redskins who I am confident could transition to and excel in other offenses. No other starter was drafted earlier than the 5th round, and two began their careers playing for Shanahan in Denver. Montgomery, the second best lineman, couldn’t stick on a roster until the Redskins signed him. Lichtensteiger, the third best, was drafted by Shanahan to the Broncos. After Shanahan got fired, he was cut and spent a season out of football until Shanahan signed him again in Washington. Point being, these aren’t cream-of-the-crop linemen, they are linemen who have a specific skill set and fit a specific scheme.

Sure, they could put on some weight, but they still wouldn’t be maulers and having them attempt too much power blocking would be downplaying their greatest strength: the speed and footwork to reach block, cut block and get to the second level. The entire line (outside Williams) is undersized and quick, allowing them to get their hands on linebackers and defensive backs, not blow defensive tackles off the ball with strength.

It extends past the line, though: Alfred Morris is an ideal zone running halfback. He isn’t the most talented player, but he has great patience and vision, and can make a cut and explode into a hole when it develops. These are the most important qualities for a runner in a zone scheme. Even Roy Helu and Evan Royster were drafted for their ability to identify and slip into creases in a blocking scheme.

Lastly, it must be taken into account that standout offensive line coach Chris Foerster is still with the team and former tight ends coach/3rd down package planner Sean McVay has been promoted to Offensive Coordinator, so the people working with the offense are comfortable with zone runs. The Redskins don’t have such a plethora of talent or draft picks to add new talent that they can afford to ignore the best way to use their players, and both in front and back, the offensive roster is very clearly designed to run zone schemes. Gruden should embrace that.

Available free agents

It is difficult to tell which free agents are going to reach the open market, so I won't go into great detail on them, but I'll keep a list here of options I find attractive for the Redskins, with their ages at the start of next season, current team, and position

First, the Redskins free agents (in general order of how important it is to retain them)
Brian Orakpo, 28, OLB
Perry Riley, 27, ILB
London Fletcher, 39, ILB*
DeAngelo Hall, 30, CB (potential move to FS)
Reed Doughty, 31, S
Santana Moss, 35, WR
Josh Wilson, 29, CB
Rob Jackson, 28, OLB
Chris Baker, 26, DL
Fred Davis, 28, TE
Josh Morgan, 29, WR
J.D. Walton, 26, C
Darryl Tapp, 29, OLB
EJ Biggers, 28, CB/S
Nick Barnett, 33, ILB
Bryan Kehl, 30, ILB
Dez Briscoe, 27, WR
Rex Grossman, 34, QB

*retiring


And now for other teams' free agents.

Safety
TJ Ward, Clevland, 27, Unrestricted Free Agent
Jairus Byrd, Buffalo, 27, UFA
Taylor Mays, Cincinnati, 26, UFA

Cornerback
Chris Harris, 25, Denver, Restricted Free Agent
Sam Shields, 26, Green Bay, UFA
Aqib Talib, 28, New England, UFA
Vontae Davis, 26, Indianapolis, UFA
Alterraun Verner, 25, Tennessee, UFA
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, 28, Denver, UFA
Captain Munnerlyn, 26, Carolina, UFA

Linebacker
Brandon Spikes, 26, New England, UFA
Wesley Woodyard, 28, Denver, UFA
Keith Rivers, 28, New York Giants, UFA

Edge Rusher
Provided that Orakpo is re-signed, not a notable need. A good amount of proven rushers are free agents, though.

Defensive Line
Tyson Jackson, 28, Kansas City, UFA
Arthur Jones, 28, Baltimore, UFA
Linva Joseph, 25, New York Giants, UFA
Pat Sims, 28, Oakland, UFA
BJ Raji, 28, Green Bay, UFA
Paul Soliai, 30, Miami, UFA

Offense after the break

Roster Review (Offense)

There's a storm of stories and parasites gorging themselves on supposed bad blood in Washington, right now. Not only do I believe it's massively overblown, but I also think it's the wrong thing to focus on. That will work itself out eventually -- hopefully in the off-season -- and I would rather discuss football matters. So, given that this season is clearly over for all but evaluation, I'm going to look at the roster, position-by-position, and discuss where the Redskins need to go. They are still, of course, missing their first round draft pick from the RG3 trade, but they have the rest of the draft, picking early in rounds, and will have 18 million dollars of (unfairly-taken) cap space returned to them this off-season, so there's plenty of room to make moves to improve the team.

I'll post installments or updates adding new positions periodically.

1/8/2014 update: I'm finishing this up and adding players who were signed after the Redskins' season ended. Depending one when entries were written, references to scheme are obviously subject to change.

1/9/2014 update: With Jay Gruden named head coach, we will need to see what he plans in terms of scheme changes, but early reports are that he is likely to promote tight ends coach Sean McVay to offensive coordinator, which I would guess could mean Chris Foerster stays in charge of the line and the blocking schemes don't change too heavily. I think that would be a good move as they are effective and the team's personnel is very much built to run them. Still, we won't know for sure for a little while how much things will change. 

1/20/2014 update: Fully updated for every player on the team or who has been with the team this season. 

Quarterback

1. Robert Griffin III (23 years old/6'2" tall/220 lbs.) College at Baylor, drafted 2nd overall in 2012 [2 years, $12.5 million remaining on his contract after this season]: He's the starter, he will be the starter, and any "reporters" bleating to the contrary are just regurgitating each other's inaccurate information or trying to get attention. He's a transcendent talent and one of the best players on the team in his second year, and, honestly, has played pretty well this year. Not great, but well enough that everyone would be perfectly happy with this notch in a sophomore quarterback's development coming out of a Big 12 spread offense if it weren't following up the greatest season a rookie QB has ever had, an ORotY award, a pro bowl berth, and the attention that comes with being DC's franchise QB and savior.

Griffin has things to work on: he's one of the worst pre-snap quarterbacks in the league, his mechanics sometimes falter as he tries to let his outstanding arm strength do the job that should be done by his footwork, and his mechanics on the run this season have been much worse than last season (whether that's a result of the injury, the knee brace, or just bad habits coming out as he's often running for his life, I don't know). Griffin is inconsistent on when he tries to trust his receivers' timing coming out of breaks and throw to where they should be be and when he tries to look around and find an open player, and is sometimes punished for both by drops, bad routes, or sacks. He's not unable to read a defense, but isn't as fast or sure of it as a great pocket quarterback, and has trouble picking up on pre-snap clues to what the D will do on the play à la Peyton Manning. He also, of course, needs to learn when to give up on a play and lay down for a sack or toss the ball away instead of trying to force things. These problems are all fixable, however, and not uncommon for a young player, and being as good as he is this early is still impressive. He's smart, incredibly hard-working, and unbelievably talented: there's no reason to think he won't improve. He is in his second year, coming off a major injury, and had no off-season to develop chemistry and work on timing. This entry should be longer than anyone else on the team's will be, for obvious reasons.

2. Kirk Cousins (25/6'3/209 lbs.) Michigan State, 3rd:24 in 2012 [2 years, $1.5m]: Cousins is hard-working, smart, and has college experience that is more applicable to the NFL level than Griffin. But he has his own problems and certainly isn't the talent that Griffin is. He is more of a Matt Flynn/Matt Cassel type. If he gets really lucky, his upside may be Matt Schaub. Any Matt, really. Adequate-but-unimpressive arm strength and athleticism, he is a good backup and I could see him being a solid game manager, but I would be surprised if he's ever a franchise QB for anyone (would be happy to be wrong here though, I like the guy). He will probably be back as the Redskins second string QB next year, but it will depend on how much interest teams have in the off-season. There are a lot of interesting prospects in this draft at the position, but if a team decides they want someone a little more veteran, the Redskins will certainly listen to offers. Cousins started the final three games of the season, and while he wasn't bad per se, he likely didn't do any favors for his stock. The entire team was floundering and he simply showed he wasn't ready to come in and put the team on his back, which no one should have expected. Santana Moss even expressed his belief that Cousins was essentially being set up to fail. Overall, taking context into account, his performances were mediocre, but ended on a particularly poor zero-touchdown, two-interception flop in bad weather against the Giants.

3. Rex Grossman (33/6'1/225 lbs.) Florida, 2003 [Free agent]: Doesn't really matter. If Shanahan is still here, Grossman probably will be too. If he's fired, Grossman will be gone. He's here because the Shanahans like him and he's familiar with their scheme.